As everyday brings Las Vegas closer to the completion of the $1.8 billion Allegiant Stadium, even so much as uttering the word “Raiders” strikes a varying degree of emotion depending on whom you’re talking to. Excitement buzzes around the die hard fans that are almost as famous as the team itself, while many continue to curse the decision makers that played a part in the relocation. Wherever you find yourself on the spectrum, one thing on the minds of many homeowners is how the team’s move is going to affect their home values. Unfortunately, there doesn’t seem to be a clear answer.
Just earlier this month, Fox 5 News reported on Realtor.com’s projections for the Las Vegas Valley real estate market next year, and it wasn’t exactly favorable. According to Realtor.com’s report, they predict:
- Home price growth will flatten, with a forecasted increase of 0.8 percent
- Inventory will remain constrained, especially at the entry-level price segment
- Mortgage rates are likely to bump up to 3.88 percent by the end of the year
- Tight inventory and rising mortgage rates will lead to dropping sales
- Buyers will continue to move to affordability, benefitting mid-sized markets
In the same article from Fox 5, a local realtor rebutted these predictions, stating “We see Vegas booming. We see the California exodus. We see a shortage of homes. Prices are going up. Wages are going up. There’s corporations coming here. So how they think that the prices are going to fall was really a surprise to a lot of us that are in the trenches on the day to day that have the MLS data.”
So just what does that data say?
We looked at MLS data from January 2018 to this November, which didn’t really fit with either of the previous theories. Sales price to list price average ratios started strong in January of last year, holding at 100%. As of last month, homes sold on average just below 98% of the list price. The historic count of active listings in the area have also skyrocketed in that time frame, topping out at almost 20,000 in September 2019. While the number of home sales varied from month to month, sales from November 2019 did end on a downward trend. Lastly, the number of expired listings (contracted listings that did not sell in the specified time frame) has increased for each month over the previous year for 14 months straight.
Obviously, looking at the past data doesn’t guarantee how the market will change in 2020. Just like driving a car, you can’t see the road ahead by looking in the rearview mirror. The Raiders relocation is certainly still a wildcard, but nobody knows for sure whether it will be for the better. A November article by Dana Gentry of the Nevada Current contained information from Trulia that found of 31 neighborhoods with NFL stadiums, two-thirds experienced higher appreciation than surrounding areas. However, Gentry also reported that homes near stadiums in Arlington, Texas and Indianapolis experienced a decrease in value, most likely due to traffic in the vicinity.
Between the official relocation of the Raiders, the upcoming election next year and the steady influx of new Las Vegans, it appears we will only have our questions regarding the market answered with time. Putting off the sale of your home for a better market is always a gamble, and for those homeowners willing to put their plans on hold to possibly reap the benefits, I wish you the best of luck. If however, you decide it’s time to make a move or would just like to know what your home is likely to sell for in today’s market, visit http://theraiderseffect.info for a fast and free home evaluation.